What this report is built on
331 shots analyzed · 327 decided (clear save or goal) · 44 goals against
125 shots analyzed · 118 decided (clear save or goal) · 14 goals against
407 shots analyzed · 401 decided (clear save or goal) · 35 goals against
- Three goalies, three different contexts — Bobrovsky seventeen NHL games played for Florida, Stolarz seven NHL games, Akhtyamov an AHL playoff run. No cross-goalie rate in this deck is like-for-like, so this report does not compare the three to each other. Each is presented on his own against the same pool.
- Bobrovsky’s sample is his Florida body of work. He was acquired by Toronto in the 2026 offseason; all 331 tagged shots are from his 2025–26 season with the Florida Panthers. It is shown here to brief his new club. His games are never rolled into a Toronto team total anywhere in this deck, and there is no Toronto team total.
- Stolarz’s sample is small — 118 decided shots on 14 goals, against 327 for Bobrovsky and 401 for Akhtyamov. One goal moves his overall save % by about .008, so every rate on his slides is fragile.
- Two data-quality flags from import both land in Stolarz’s set (03.30.2026_ANA P3: an exact-duplicate save row, and two goals tagged at the same clock). If that second goal is spurious, GA is 13 and Sv% is .889, and ST1/ST3 shift with it. Both are to be resolved before publishing.
- Baseline (“NHL pool”) = the seven other goalies we track in data.json — 2,005 shots, includes backups — not the league.
- That pool is all NHL. For Akhtyamov’s AHL sample it is not a like-for-like peer set, and GEM holds no AHL peer set at all. Every pool comparison on his slides is indicative of shot-type profile only, never of level.
- Akhtyamov’s strength column is untagged. All 407 of his shots read 5v5, where every other goalie in the corpus runs 15–25% non-5v5 (Bobrovsky 17%, Stolarz 25%). Twenty AHL playoff games with no penalty-kill shots faced is not possible, so the column never got tagged and is sitting at its default. Two consequences: no strength split of any kind is shown for him (his slides carry an explicit placeholder where the penalty-kill row would be), and his nominal “5v5” bucket would actually contain the special-teams shots every other goalie’s 5v5 excludes — so the deck publishes no 5v5 figure for him and never sets one beside another goalie’s. His Overall and every other split shown are all-situations on both sides of the comparison and are unaffected. On the others’ rates, roughly 45–70 of his 407 shots are not 5v5.
- The panels below list the games in the analyzed sample. They carry no shots-against, goals-against or save-percentage column, and no won-lost record: we hold no box score for either goalie, so nothing of the kind is shown.
Played for Florida
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Workload and quality faced
- These three are not a tandem and this slide is not a comparison. Bobrovsky’s sample is seventeen NHL games played for Florida, Stolarz’s is seven NHL games, Akhtyamov’s is an AHL playoff run. The three shots-per-game and high-danger figures describe three different contexts and cannot be read against each other.
- Bobrovsky — 19.2 shots faced per game across 17 games and 32% high-danger, the only one of the three at or above the pool’s 31%. His is the most goals against of the three (44) on 327 decided shots; Akhtyamov’s 401 decided is the larger shot count.
- Stolarz — 16.9 shots faced per game across 7 games, 25% high-danger, under the pool’s 31%. Seven games is too few to read as a workload profile.
- Akhtyamov — 20.1 shots faced per game across 20 games, 21% of them high-danger. Against the NHL goalies we track (31%) that is a lighter high-danger diet by our tagging, but tagged AHL shot quality has no AHL baseline to sit against.
- Against the NHL pool’s overall .907: Bobrovsky is .865 (−.041) on 327 decided shots, Stolarz .881 (−.025) on 118, Akhtyamov .913 (+.006) on 401 — but Akhtyamov’s is AHL, so only the first two sit against that pool on comparable terms.
He faced the most high-danger volume of the three
- The most goals and the most high-danger volume in this deck: 44 goals on 327 decided shots, and 32% of his shots high-danger — 104 high-danger chances, the most of the three. (Akhtyamov’s 401 decided shots is the larger raw sample.)
- Best mark in his profile is the catch-and-shoot: .963 against a pool .876 — on 27 shots.
- Comfortable in forced lateral movement: .786 against a pool .738.
- Goal quality is not the story here: 5 of 44 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier — 11.4%, under the pool’s 13.9% and the lowest of the three. 37% of his saves left a rebound, 33 of those attacked.
“Holds up best” is relative to his own sample, not to the pool. He is .865 overall here against the pool’s .907, so most rows on this slide still sit below the baseline — these are the situations where the gap closes or reverses, not a list of strengths against NHL peers. Only the top two rows are above the pool, and both rest on fewer than 30 shots. Pool = the seven other goalies we track in data.json (2,005 shots, includes backups) — NHL, so a like-for-like level of play for him, but not the league.
Focus areas
Florida sample. These are the situations from his 2025–26 Florida season, shown to brief Toronto staff. On 327 decided shots most of these rows rest on more shots than their counterparts on Stolarz’s slides — the rush row is 75 shots and the slot row 108, against 10–44 there — so the margins carry more weight, though they are still a Florida sample. Bar length is the printed number as a fraction.
- Two themes account for most of it: the interior (25 of 44 goals from the slot, .769 against .851) and plays arriving with speed (rush .813 against .917).
- Ls is far and away his most-scored-on location — 18 of 44 goals.
- He is beaten across the full height of the net — glove high 9, around 8, blocker mid 7, blocker high 6, five-hole 6 — which argues against a single-side read.
- High-danger volume is part of the picture: 104 of his 327 decided shots were high-danger, and 35 of his 44 goals came on them.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Bobrovsky: 108 · 99 · 74, 210 clips in the deduped union of the three (281 before dedupe) — the largest clip package in this deck. All clips are Florida games. Pool figures are the NHL tracked-goalie pool, which is a like-for-like level of play for him.
He held up when the play got complicated
- Perfect off the pass in this sample: 20 for 20 on one-timers, against a pool .866. Twenty shots — a clean run, not an established rate.
- Better as the sequence lengthens: .909 on three-or-more-movement possessions and .857 on two-plus lateral movements, both above the pool (.884, .816).
- Comfortable in forced lateral movement: .846 against a pool .738 — on 13 shots.
- Where the goals went: 5 of 14 glove high, 3 five-hole. 48% of his saves left a rebound, 12 of those attacked.
Small sample. Every row above rests on 10–44 decided shots out of 118 in total. Pool = the seven other goalies we track in data.json (2,005 shots, includes backups) — NHL, so a like-for-like level of play, but not the league. A single clip moves most of these rows by several points; the one-timer row would fall to .950 on one goal.
Focus areas
Small sample — and it cuts both ways. The upper-glove row is 18 shots and the quick-release row 13; on populations that size a difference of this size is a reason to open the clips, not a conclusion. Two import flags sit inside this set: if the duplicated goal in 03.30.2026_ANA is spurious, GA is 13, overall Sv% is .889, and the routine and should’ve-had rows move with it. Bar length is the printed number as a fraction; the should’ve-had row is one where low is good.
- The two clearest gaps are upper glove (.722 vs .885) and routine shots (.930 vs .981) — opposite ends of the difficulty range.
- Traffic and catch-and-shoot are thin individually and grouped for review: screened .765, quick release .769.
- 4 of 14 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier — 28.6% — the highest of the three Toronto goalies (Bobrovsky 11.4%, Akhtyamov 17.1%) and more than double the pool’s 13.9%.
- Seven games, 118 decided shots, 14 goals. Read this slide as a list of things to check on video, not as a profile.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Stolarz: 18 · 25 · 71, 86 clips in the deduped union of the three (114 before dedupe). ST1’s reference to Akhtyamov is quoted verbatim from the authored evidence; the two are in different leagues, so treat “organisational pattern” as a question for the video, not a measured finding. Bobrovsky is glove-high on 9 of 44 too, but at .836 — closer to the pool than Stolarz’s .722.
Routine pucks are near-airtight
- Almost never loses a routine puck. .985 on 264 routine chances — four goals — against the NHL pool’s .981.
- Strong off the rush and off the pass: .944 on rush chances and .900 on one-timers, both clear of the pool (.917 and .866).
- The goals are concentrated: 26 of his 35 goals came on high-danger chances, where he is .687 against a pool .753.
- Rebound control is a live question, not a finding: 40% of his saves left a rebound and 40 of those rebounds were attacked. GEM does not compute a pool rebound rate, so there is no baseline to place this against.
AHL sample against an NHL pool. Akhtyamov played this sample in the AHL. The pool column is the seven other goalies we track in data.json (2,005 shots, includes backups) — all NHL, and not the league. GEM holds no AHL peer set, so these rows describe how his shot-type profile sits beside NHL tagging, not how he would grade against AHL or NHL peers. Read the shape, not the margin.
Focus areas
AHL sample against an NHL pool. As on the previous slide: the pool is the seven other goalies in data.json, all NHL, and there is no AHL peer set to substitute. A negative margin here is a prompt to review video, not evidence that he is below a peer group. Bar length is the printed number as a fraction — magnitude, not quality; the should’ve-had row is one where low is good.
- The damage is interior and high-danger: 26 of 35 goals were high-danger chances, and the slot / dot-lane subset is the widest gap at .727 against .786.
- Ls is his most-scored-on location — 8 of 35 goals, more than any other.
- Goal quality is its own signal: 6 of 35 goals are tagged should’ve-had, a 17.1% rate.
- Glove high is where most goals ended up (10 of 35), but his upper-glove save rate is level with the pool at .880 vs .885 — a placement pattern, not yet a demonstrated weakness.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Akhtyamov: 66 · 54 · 38, 126 clips in the deduped union of the three (158 before dedupe). Pool figures in these areas are the NHL tracked-goalie pool — see the AHL caveat on the two previous slides.