What this report is built on
- Three goalies, three different contexts — Bobrovsky seventeen NHL games, Stolarz twelve NHL games, Akhtyamov an AHL playoff run. No cross-goalie rate in this deck is like-for-like; each is presented on his own against the same pool.
- Bobrovsky’s sample is his Florida body of work. Acquired by Toronto in the 2026 offseason; all 331 tagged shots are his 2025–26 season with the Panthers, shown here to brief his new club. There is no Toronto team total in this deck, and his games are never rolled into one.
- Stolarz’s sample is the smallest of the three — 232 decided shots on 28 goals, against 327 for Bobrovsky and 401 for Akhtyamov; it nearly doubled on 2026-08-18 (+119 shots, 5 games) and one goal now moves his save % by about .004. Two import flags land in his set (03.30.2026_ANA P3: an exact-duplicate save row, and two goals tagged at the same clock). If that second goal is spurious, GA is 27 and Sv% is .883, and ST1/ST3 shift with it. Both are to be resolved before publishing.
- Baseline (“NHL pool”) = the seven other NHL goalies we track — 2,005 shots, includes backups — not a league average. A like-for-like level of play for Bobrovsky and Stolarz.
- For Akhtyamov’s AHL sample that pool is not a peer set, and GEM holds no AHL peer set at all. Every pool comparison on his slides is indicative of shot-type profile only, never of level.
Played for Florida
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Workload and quality faced
- Stolarz — twelve games is still on the thin side for a workload profile. Akhtyamov — his lighter high-danger share is a share by our tagging, and tagged AHL shot quality has no AHL baseline to sit against.
- Against the NHL pool’s overall .907: Bobrovsky .865 (−.041), Stolarz .879 (−.028), Akhtyamov .913 (+.006) — but Akhtyamov’s is AHL, so only the first two sit against that pool on comparable terms.
He faced the most high-danger volume of the three
- Best marks are the catch-and-shoot and forced lateral movement — .963 and .786, both above the pool, both on fewer than 30 shots.
- Goal quality is not the story here: 5 of 44 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier — 11.4%, under the pool’s 13.9% and the lowest of the three.
- 37% of his saves left a rebound, 33 of those attacked.
Focus areas
Florida sample — his 2025–26 season, shown to brief Toronto staff. On 327 decided shots these rows rest on larger populations than Stolarz’s, so the margins carry more weight.
- Two themes account for most of it: the interior — 25 of 44 goals from the slot — and plays arriving with speed off the rush.
- Ls is far and away his most-scored-on location — 18 of 44 goals.
- He is beaten across the full height of the net — glove high 9, around 8, blocker mid 7, blocker high 6, five-hole 6 — which argues against a single-side read.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Bobrovsky: 108 · 99 · 74, 210 clips in the deduped union of the three (281 before dedupe). All clips are Florida games.
He held up when the play got complicated
- Strong off the pass: .918 on one-timers (45/49) against a pool .866 — the perfect 20-for-20 run in the first seven games ended, but the edge held at more than double the sample.
- Better as the sequence lengthens — above the pool on three-or-more-movement possessions and on two-plus lateral movements, and comfortable in forced lateral movement.
- Where the goals went: 9 of 28 glove high, 5 five-hole. 46% of his saves left a rebound, 25 of those attacked.
Every row above rests on 25–90 decided shots out of 232 in total — roughly double what the first seven games gave. The rows that survived the sample doubling (one-timers, long possessions, lateral work) are the ones to trust; controlled zone entries dropped off this list at .882 on 17 shots (pool .955), and the penalty kill moved onto it.
Focus areas
The sample doubling sorted these. Upper glove and catch-and-shoot held — .722 became .735 on twice the shots, .769 became .750 — so they are now the two clearest gaps. Routine shots went the other way: 54 new routine shots, no new goals, .930 became .960 and the gap to the pool narrowed to .021. If the duplicated goal in 03.30.2026_ANA is spurious, GA is 27, overall Sv% is .883, and the routine and should’ve-had rows move with it.
- The two clearest gaps are upper glove and catch-and-shoot — both held when the sample doubled. Routine shots, the original second gap, faded to .960 on 125 shots.
- Traffic (.828, 29 shots) is the thinner of the two ST2 legs and stays grouped with catch-and-shoot for review.
- His should’ve-had share is still the highest of the three — 21.4% against Bobrovsky’s 11.4% and Akhtyamov’s 17.1% — but it came down from 28.6% as the sample grew.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Stolarz: 34 · 47 · 125, 162 clips in the deduped union of the three (206 before dedupe). Bobrovsky is glove-high on 9 of 44 too, but at .836 — closer to the pool than Stolarz’s .735.
Routine pucks are near-airtight
- Strong off the rush and off the pass: .944 on rush chances and .900 on one-timers, both clear of the pool.
- The goals are concentrated: 26 of his 35 came on high-danger chances.
- Rebound control is a live question, not a finding: 40% of his saves left a rebound and 40 of those were attacked. GEM computes no pool rebound rate, so there is no baseline to place it against.
AHL sample against an NHL pool. GEM holds no AHL peer set, so these rows describe how his shot-type profile sits beside NHL tagging, not how he would grade against AHL or NHL peers. Read the shape, not the margin.
Focus areas
AHL sample against an NHL pool — as on the previous slide, with no AHL peer set to substitute. A negative margin here is a prompt to review video, not evidence that he is below a peer group. The penalty kill is not listed here: strength was untagged for him in the 2026-08-12 export, and the 2026-08-18 export tagged it — .875 on 64 shots, above the pool, so it sits on the previous slide.
- The damage is interior and high-danger — 26 of 35 goals, and the slot / dot-lane subset is the widest gap.
- Ls is his most-scored-on location — 8 of 35 goals, more than any other.
- Glove high is where most goals ended up, but his upper-glove save rate is level with the pool — a placement pattern, not yet a demonstrated weakness.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Akhtyamov: 66 · 54 · 38, 126 clips in the deduped union of the three (158 before dedupe). Pool figures are the NHL pool — see the AHL caveat above.