Goalie Efficiency Model · GEMGoalie Development Report
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sports Performance Analysis · G.E.M.Prepared for Toronto Maple Leafs Hockey Operations · Confidential — not for redistribution 01 /
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What this report is built on

Sergei Bobrovsky
G · Toronto Maple Leafs · NHL
17Games in sample 331Shots analyzed 327Decided 44GA .865SV% in sample
NHL sample · 01.27 – 04.09.2026 · 17 games · FLA games
Anthony Stolarz
G · Toronto Maple Leafs · NHL
7Games in sample 125Shots analyzed 118Decided 14GA .881SV% in sample
NHL sample · 11.08.2025 – 04.02.2026 · 7 games
Artur Akhtyamov
G · Toronto Marlies · AHL
20Games in sample 407Shots analyzed 401Decided 35GA .913SV% in sample
2026 AHL playoff run · 05.01 – 06.19 · vs LAV, CLE, WBS, CHI
Every number in this report describes what happened in this analyzed sample — not the season, and not the goalie in general.
  • Three goalies, three different contexts — Bobrovsky seventeen NHL games, Stolarz seven NHL games, Akhtyamov an AHL playoff run. No cross-goalie rate in this deck is like-for-like; each is presented on his own against the same pool.
  • Bobrovsky’s sample is his Florida body of work. Acquired by Toronto in the 2026 offseason; all 331 tagged shots are his 2025–26 season with the Panthers, shown here to brief his new club. There is no Toronto team total in this deck, and his games are never rolled into one.
  • Stolarz’s sample is small — 118 decided shots on 14 goals, against 327 for Bobrovsky and 401 for Akhtyamov; one goal moves his save % by about .008. Two import flags land in his set (03.30.2026_ANA P3: an exact-duplicate save row, and two goals tagged at the same clock). If that second goal is spurious, GA is 13 and Sv% is .889, and ST1/ST3 shift with it. Both are to be resolved before publishing.
  • Baseline (“NHL pool”) = the seven other NHL goalies we track — 2,005 shots, includes backups — not a league average. A like-for-like level of play for Bobrovsky and Stolarz.
  • For Akhtyamov’s AHL sample that pool is not a peer set, and GEM holds no AHL peer set at all. Every pool comparison on his slides is indicative of shot-type profile only, never of level.
Sergei Bobrovsky · games in the analyzed sample

Played for Florida

DateOpponent
Anthony Stolarz · games in the analyzed sample
DateOpponent
Artur Akhtyamov · games in the analyzed sample
DateOpponent
Our Sample

Workload and quality faced

Sergei Bobrovsky
NHL · with Florida · 331 shots analyzed · 44 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
283/327
High-danger save %High-danger
.000
69/104
19.2
shots faced per game
17 coded games
32%
of his shots were high-danger
NHL goalies we track: 31%
Anthony Stolarz
NHL · 125 shots analyzed · 14 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
104/118
High-danger save %High-danger
.000
22/30
16.9
shots faced per game
7 coded games
25%
of his shots were high-danger
NHL goalies we track: 31%
Artur Akhtyamov
AHL · 407 shots analyzed · 35 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
366/401
High-danger save %High-danger
.000
57/83
20.1
shots faced per game
20 coded games
21%
of his shots were high-danger
NHL goalies we track: 31% — different league
  • Stolarz — seven games is too few to read as a workload profile. Akhtyamov — his lighter high-danger share is a share by our tagging, and tagged AHL shot quality has no AHL baseline to sit against.
  • Against the NHL pool’s overall .907: Bobrovsky .865 (−.041), Stolarz .881 (−.025), Akhtyamov .913 (+.006) — but Akhtyamov’s is AHL, so only the first two sit against that pool on comparable terms.
What the movement data shows
Most-used chains share of decided shots
Sergei Bobrovsky
Post Entry Feet RVH Entry From Feet195.8%
Tracking Shuffles Drift164.9%
Anthony Stolarz
Post Entry Feet RVH Entry From Feet75.9%
Drift Post Entry Feet65.1%
Artur Akhtyamov
Post Entry Feet RVH Entry From Feet112.7%
Up from RVH Step Out - Drift102.5%
Save selection share of saves
Sergei Bobrovsky
Blocking Body Save4817.0%
Butterfly Glove4515.9%
Anthony Stolarz
Blocking Body Save1615.5%
Butterfly Blocker1312.6%
Artur Akhtyamov
Butterfly Glove7219.7%
Butterfly Blocker6016.4%
Beaten share of goals
Sergei Bobrovsky
Glove High920%
Around818%
Anthony Stolarz
Glove High536%
Five Hole321%
Artur Akhtyamov
Glove High1029%
Around514%
Chains are consecutive movement pairs, counted once per shot wherever they fall in the chain. GEM codes up to five movements, the save selection and the trajectory on every shot. The three blocks carry three different denominators, because the fields do: decided shots (327 · 118 · 401), saves carrying a technique tag (283 · 103 · 365), goals carrying a trajectory (44 · 14 · 35).
Sergei Bobrovsky · Profile

He faced the most high-danger volume of the three

Overall save % · in these games
.000
283/327 in sample · 17 games with Florida · pool .907
32%high-danger share .663high-danger save % 11.4%should’ve-had goals
Identity
  • Best marks are the catch-and-shoot and forced lateral movement.963 and .786, both above the pool, both on fewer than 30 shots.
  • Goal quality is not the story here: 5 of 44 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier — 11.4%, under the pool’s 13.9% and the lowest of the three.
  • 37% of his saves left a rebound, 33 of those attacked.
By situation — where the gap closesNHL poolBobrovsky
Quick-release shotscatch and shoot · 27 shots, one goal.876.963 26/27
Forced lateral movementGEM movement bucket · 28 shots.738.786 22/28
Routine shots6 of his 44 goals.981.964 160/166
Dot-lane shots.917.880 66/75
Long possessions3+ movements before the shot.884.864 121/140
One-timersshot directly off the pass.866.855 53/62
Two or more lateral movementsbefore the shot, excluding settled feet · non-routine.816.803 53/66
Sergei Bobrovsky · Analysis

Focus areas

By situationNHL poolBobrovsky
Rush chances14 of his 44 goals · −.104 against the pool.917.813 61/75
Rush and controlled zone entries99 shots.923.828 82/99
Slot shots25 of his 44 goals — 57%.851.769 83/108
High-danger save %35 of his 44 goals · 104 chances.753.663 69/104
Controlled zone entriescoming into the offensive zone · 24 shots.955.875 21/24
Through screens11 of his 44 goals.871.817 49/60
Deflections25 shots.817.760 19/25
Upper gloveglove high + mid · 9 of his 44 goals are glove high.885.836 61/73
Penalty kill4v5 · 47 shots.850.809 38/47

Florida sample — his 2025–26 season, shown to brief Toronto staff. On 327 decided shots these rows rest on larger populations than Stolarz’s, so the margins carry more weight.

  • Two themes account for most of it: the interior — 25 of 44 goals from the slot — and plays arriving with speed off the rush.
  • Ls is far and away his most-scored-on location18 of 44 goals.
  • He is beaten across the full height of the net — glove high 9, around 8, blocker mid 7, blocker high 6, five-hole 6 — which argues against a single-side read.
Sergei Bobrovsky · Development

Development keys

BOB1 Slot and interior chances Slot .769 (25 GA/108) · pool .851 · 25 of his 44 goals come from the slot 108 clips The dominant feature of his sample: 25 of 44 goals — 57% — come from the slot. On the tighter high-danger interior cut (slot and dot lane, goal-chance only) he is .663 on 86 shots. Dev Clips
BOB2 Rush and controlled zone entries Rush and zone entries .828 (17 GA/99) · pool .923 · rush alone .813 vs .917 99 clips On shots arriving off the rush or off a controlled zone entry he is .828 where the tracked pool is .923 — a −.095 gap, the widest of any area in this group measured on a population this size — and rush alone is .813 against .917. The review question is depth and timing of the retreat: whether he is arriving at his post-up set or still gaining ground when the shot comes. Dev Clips
BOB3 Screens and deflections Screened / deflected .824 (13 GA/74) · pool .865 · screened alone .817, deflections .760 74 clips Two obstructed-sightline exposures grouped because they share a mechanism: shots through a screen (.817, 11 GA/60) and deflections (.760, 6 GA/25). He is beaten across the full height of the net — glove high, blocker mid, blocker high and five-hole each account for six to nine of his goals — which points at puck-tracking through traffic rather than a side preference. Dev Clips

Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Bobrovsky: 108 · 99 · 74, 210 clips in the deduped union of the three (281 before dedupe). All clips are Florida games.

Anthony Stolarz · Profile

He held up when the play got complicated

Overall save % · in these games
.000
104/118 in sample · 7 games · pool .907
25%high-danger share .733high-danger save % 28.6%should’ve-had goals
Identity
  • Perfect off the pass in this sample: 20 for 20 on one-timers — a clean run, not an established rate.
  • Better as the sequence lengthens — above the pool on three-or-more-movement possessions and on two-plus lateral movements, and comfortable in forced lateral movement.
  • Where the goals went: 5 of 14 glove high, 3 five-hole. 48% of his saves left a rebound, 12 of those attacked.
By situation — where he grades wellNHL poolStolarz
One-timersshot directly off the pass · never beaten in this sample.8661.000 20/20
Long possessions3+ movements before the shot.884.909 40/44
Controlled zone entriescoming into the offensive zone · 10 shots.955.900 9/10
Slot shots.851.867 26/30
Two or more lateral movementsbefore the shot, excluding settled feet · non-routine.816.857 18/21
Forced lateral movementGEM movement bucket · 13 shots.738.846 11/13

Every row above rests on 10–44 decided shots out of 118 in total. A single clip moves most of them by several points; the one-timer row would fall to .950 on one goal.

Anthony Stolarz · Analysis

Focus areas

By situationNHL poolStolarz
Upper gloveglove high + mid · 5 of his 14 goals are glove high · 18 shots.885.722 13/18
Routine shots5 goals on chances tagged routine.981.930 66/71
Through screens17 shots.871.765 13/17
Quick-release shotscatch and shoot · 13 shots.876.769 10/13
Dot-lane shots.917.854 35/41
High-danger save %8 of his 14 goals.753.733 22/30
Penalty kill4v5.850.826 19/23
Should’ve-had goalsshare of goals against, lower is better · more than double the pool rate13.9%28.6% 4/14

Small sample — and it cuts both ways. The upper-glove row is 18 shots and the quick-release row 13; a difference of that size is a reason to open the clips, not a conclusion. If the duplicated goal in 03.30.2026_ANA is spurious, GA is 13, overall Sv% is .889, and the routine and should’ve-had rows move with it.

  • The two clearest gaps are upper glove and routine shots — opposite ends of the difficulty range.
  • Traffic and catch-and-shoot are thin individually and grouped for review.
  • His should’ve-had share is the highest of the three — 28.6% against Bobrovsky’s 11.4% and Akhtyamov’s 17.1%.
Anthony Stolarz · Development

Development keys

ST1 Upper glove Upper glove .722 (5 GA/18) · pool .885 · 5 of his 14 goals (36%) 18 clips The largest single gap in his profile: on shots he is beaten glove high or glove mid he is .722 against a pool .885, and glove high alone accounts for five of his 14 goals. On an 18-shot population this is a flag to check on video, not a settled finding. Akhtyamov shows the same signature (29% of his goals glove high) in a different league — a question for the video, not an organisational finding. Dev Clips
ST2 Traffic and catch-and-shoot Screened / catch-and-shoot .800 (5 GA/25) · pool .880 · screened alone .765 25 clips Two related exposures grouped because each is thin alone: shots through a screen (.765, 4 GA/17) and catch-and-shoot releases (.769, 3 GA/13). The clips should show whether the issue is sightline recovery around the screen or late depth on the catch-and-release, which are different fixes. Dev Clips
ST3 Routine-shot lapses Routine shots .930 (5 GA/71) · pool .981 · 4 of 14 goals should've-had (28.6%) 71 clips On chances tagged routine, five goals came on shots that should not beat an NHL goalie. At 28.6% his should've-had share is the highest of the three Toronto goalies and more than double the pool's 13.9%. Dev Clips

Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Stolarz: 18 · 25 · 71, 86 clips in the deduped union of the three (114 before dedupe). Bobrovsky is glove-high on 9 of 44 too, but at .836 — closer to the pool than Stolarz’s .722.

Artur Akhtyamov · Profile

Routine pucks are near-airtight

Overall save % · in these games
.000
366/401 in sample · 2026 AHL playoff run, 20 games
21%high-danger share .687high-danger save % 17.1%should’ve-had goals
Identity
  • Strong off the rush and off the pass: .944 on rush chances and .900 on one-timers, both clear of the pool.
  • The goals are concentrated: 26 of his 35 came on high-danger chances.
  • Rebound control is a live question, not a finding: 40% of his saves left a rebound and 40 of those were attacked. GEM computes no pool rebound rate, so there is no baseline to place it against.
By situation — where he grades wellNHL poolAkhtyamov
Routine shots4 of his 35 goals.981.985 260/264
Rush chances.917.944 102/108
Dot-lane shots.917.925 111/120
One-timersshot directly off the pass.866.900 63/70
Quick-release shotscatch and shoot.876.893 50/56
Forced lateral movementGEM movement bucket · 19 shots.738.789 15/19
Penalty kill — cannot be shownStrength is untagged across all 407 of his shots — every row reads 5v5. This row is absent because the data is missing, not because he faced no penalty-kill shots.

AHL sample against an NHL pool. GEM holds no AHL peer set, so these rows describe how his shot-type profile sits beside NHL tagging, not how he would grade against AHL or NHL peers. Read the shape, not the margin.

Artur Akhtyamov · Analysis

Focus areas

By situationNHL poolAkhtyamov
High-danger save %26 of his 35 goals.753.687 57/83
Interior high-dangerhigh-danger in the slot or dot lane.786.727 48/66
Deflections11 shots.817.727 8/11
Two or more lateral movementsbefore the shot, excluding settled feet · non-routine · 12 of his 35 goals.816.778 42/54
Controlled zone entriescoming into the offensive zone.955.909 30/33
Should’ve-had goalsshare of goals against, lower is better13.9%17.1% 6/35
Upper gloveglove high + mid · 10 of his 35 goals are glove high, but the rate itself is at the pool.885.880 73/83
Penalty kill — cannot be shownStrength is untagged across all 407 of his shots — every row reads 5v5. This row is absent because the data is missing, not because he faced no penalty-kill shots.

AHL sample against an NHL pool — as on the previous slide, with no AHL peer set to substitute. A negative margin here is a prompt to review video, not evidence that he is below a peer group.

  • The damage is interior and high-danger — 26 of 35 goals, and the slot / dot-lane subset is the widest gap.
  • Ls is his most-scored-on location8 of 35 goals, more than any other.
  • Glove high is where most goals ended up, but his upper-glove save rate is level with the pool — a placement pattern, not yet a demonstrated weakness.
Artur Akhtyamov · Development

Development keys

AK1 High-danger interior chances Interior high-danger .727 (18 GA/66) · NHL-tracked pool .786 · Ls is his most-scored-on location, 8 of 35 goals 66 clips Of his 35 goals, 26 came on high-danger chances, and the interior subset — slot and dot lane — is where the gap to the tracked pool is widest. The low slot alone accounts for eight goals. Watch whether he is set and square at release or still resolving depth, and whether the beat is through the body or around it. Dev Clips
AK2 Lateral recovery on non-routine looks Two or more lateral movements, non-routine .778 (12 GA/54) · pool .816 54 clips Twelve of his 35 goals arrive on shots preceded by two or more lateral movements, excluding settled feet and excluding routine chances. Watch whether the second and third pushes arrive with a recovered base or whether he is still travelling when the puck is released. Dev Clips
AK3 First-shot readiness on zone entries 6 of 35 goals should've-had (17.1%) · zone entries .909 vs pool .955 · composite Sv% is at pool parity 38 clips Readiness rather than save rate — on the composite population he is level with the pool (.789 vs .787), so the signal is in goal quality. His should've-had rate is 17.1% against 13.9% for the tracked-goalie pool. Paired here with shots off controlled zone entries, the question is anticipation and depth on predictable, developing plays. Dev Clips

Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Akhtyamov: 66 · 54 · 38, 126 clips in the deduped union of the three (158 before dedupe). Pool figures are the NHL pool — see the AHL caveat above.

Goalie Efficiency Model

Goalie Development Report

Sergei Bobrovsky Toronto Maple Leafs · NHL  ·  Anthony Stolarz Toronto Maple Leafs · NHL  ·  Artur Akhtyamov Toronto Marlies · AHL
Prepared for Toronto Maple Leafs Hockey Operations · Confidential — not for redistribution
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