What this report is built on
- Three goalies, three different contexts — Bobrovsky seventeen NHL games, Stolarz seven NHL games, Akhtyamov an AHL playoff run. No cross-goalie rate in this deck is like-for-like; each is presented on his own against the same pool.
- Bobrovsky’s sample is his Florida body of work. Acquired by Toronto in the 2026 offseason; all 331 tagged shots are his 2025–26 season with the Panthers, shown here to brief his new club. There is no Toronto team total in this deck, and his games are never rolled into one.
- Stolarz’s sample is small — 118 decided shots on 14 goals, against 327 for Bobrovsky and 401 for Akhtyamov; one goal moves his save % by about .008. Two import flags land in his set (03.30.2026_ANA P3: an exact-duplicate save row, and two goals tagged at the same clock). If that second goal is spurious, GA is 13 and Sv% is .889, and ST1/ST3 shift with it. Both are to be resolved before publishing.
- Baseline (“NHL pool”) = the seven other NHL goalies we track — 2,005 shots, includes backups — not a league average. A like-for-like level of play for Bobrovsky and Stolarz.
- For Akhtyamov’s AHL sample that pool is not a peer set, and GEM holds no AHL peer set at all. Every pool comparison on his slides is indicative of shot-type profile only, never of level.
Played for Florida
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Workload and quality faced
- These three are not a tandem — three different contexts, so the shots-per-game and high-danger figures above cannot be read against each other.
- Stolarz — seven games is too few to read as a workload profile. Akhtyamov — his lighter high-danger share is a share by our tagging, and tagged AHL shot quality has no AHL baseline to sit against.
- Against the NHL pool’s overall .907: Bobrovsky .865 (−.041), Stolarz .881 (−.025), Akhtyamov .913 (+.006) — but Akhtyamov’s is AHL, so only the first two sit against that pool on comparable terms.
He faced the most high-danger volume of the three
- Best marks are the catch-and-shoot and forced lateral movement — .963 and .786, both above the pool, both on fewer than 30 shots.
- Goal quality is not the story here: 5 of 44 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier — 11.4%, under the pool’s 13.9% and the lowest of the three.
- 37% of his saves left a rebound, 33 of those attacked.
Focus areas
Florida sample — his 2025–26 season, shown to brief Toronto staff. On 327 decided shots these rows rest on larger populations than Stolarz’s, so the margins carry more weight.
- Two themes account for most of it: the interior — 25 of 44 goals from the slot — and plays arriving with speed off the rush.
- Ls is far and away his most-scored-on location — 18 of 44 goals.
- He is beaten across the full height of the net — glove high 9, around 8, blocker mid 7, blocker high 6, five-hole 6 — which argues against a single-side read.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Bobrovsky: 108 · 99 · 74, 210 clips in the deduped union of the three (281 before dedupe). All clips are Florida games.
He held up when the play got complicated
- Perfect off the pass in this sample: 20 for 20 on one-timers — a clean run, not an established rate.
- Better as the sequence lengthens — above the pool on three-or-more-movement possessions and on two-plus lateral movements, and comfortable in forced lateral movement.
- Where the goals went: 5 of 14 glove high, 3 five-hole. 48% of his saves left a rebound, 12 of those attacked.
Every row above rests on 10–44 decided shots out of 118 in total. A single clip moves most of them by several points; the one-timer row would fall to .950 on one goal.
Focus areas
Small sample — and it cuts both ways. The upper-glove row is 18 shots and the quick-release row 13; a difference of that size is a reason to open the clips, not a conclusion. If the duplicated goal in 03.30.2026_ANA is spurious, GA is 13, overall Sv% is .889, and the routine and should’ve-had rows move with it.
- The two clearest gaps are upper glove and routine shots — opposite ends of the difficulty range.
- Traffic and catch-and-shoot are thin individually and grouped for review.
- His should’ve-had share is the highest of the three — 28.6% against Bobrovsky’s 11.4% and Akhtyamov’s 17.1%.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Stolarz: 18 · 25 · 71, 86 clips in the deduped union of the three (114 before dedupe). Bobrovsky is glove-high on 9 of 44 too, but at .836 — closer to the pool than Stolarz’s .722.
Routine pucks are near-airtight
- Strong off the rush and off the pass: .944 on rush chances and .900 on one-timers, both clear of the pool.
- The goals are concentrated: 26 of his 35 came on high-danger chances.
- Rebound control is a live question, not a finding: 40% of his saves left a rebound and 40 of those were attacked. GEM computes no pool rebound rate, so there is no baseline to place it against.
AHL sample against an NHL pool. GEM holds no AHL peer set, so these rows describe how his shot-type profile sits beside NHL tagging, not how he would grade against AHL or NHL peers. Read the shape, not the margin.
Focus areas
AHL sample against an NHL pool — as on the previous slide, with no AHL peer set to substitute. A negative margin here is a prompt to review video, not evidence that he is below a peer group.
- The damage is interior and high-danger — 26 of 35 goals, and the slot / dot-lane subset is the widest gap.
- Ls is his most-scored-on location — 8 of 35 goals, more than any other.
- Glove high is where most goals ended up, but his upper-glove save rate is level with the pool — a placement pattern, not yet a demonstrated weakness.
Development keys
Clip counts are the shots each area’s filter selects for Akhtyamov: 66 · 54 · 38, 126 clips in the deduped union of the three (158 before dedupe). Pool figures are the NHL pool — see the AHL caveat above.